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Non-agricultural unemployment surges and unemployment hits new highs! The Fed's hawks attack, and the yen 160 red line is in danger

Post time: 2025-11-21 views

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Hello everyone, todayXM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: Non-agricultural surge and unemployment rate hit new highs! The Fed's hawks attack, and the yen 160 red line is in danger." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On November 21, in early Asian trading on Friday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 100.16. On Thursday, as the mixed non-farm payroll data did not dispel the market's doubts about the Federal Reserve's December interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar index remained high and fluctuated above the 100 mark, hitting a 6-month high during the session, and finally closed up 0.105% at 100.23; U.S. bond yields fell back, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closing at 4.088%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy interest rate, closed at 3.545%. Spot gold fluctuated in a range, hitting $4,100 per ounce in the U.S. market again, but then fell back, eventually rising slightly by 0.01% to $4,078.59 per ounce; spot silver finally closed down 1.43%, at $50.63 per ounce. International crude oil continued its decline as Zelensky expressed his openness to peace talks. WTI crude oil continued to fall in the US market, finally closing down 1.2% at US$58.69/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.92% at US$62.67/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 100.16. The recent risk aversion sentiment has provided some safe-haven support for the US dollar, but the trend of the US dollar cross is still mainly affected by the Federal Reserve's expectations. Technically, if the US dollar index remains above the resistance level of 100.00-100.15, it will move to the next resistance level of 101.00-101.15.move.

Non-agricultural unemployment surges and unemployment hits new highs! The Feds hawks attack, and the yen 160 red line is in danger(图1)

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1533. EUR/USD trades at 1.1538 on the back of strong US job growth, offsetting weak unemployment data. Technically, if EUR/USD breaks below the 1.1500 level, it will move towards the nearest support levels at 1.1470–1.1485.

Non-agricultural unemployment surges and unemployment hits new highs! The Feds hawks attack, and the yen 160 red line is in danger(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3082. Market hopes for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve were dampened as the backdated non-farm payrolls data rose. Friday will end the week with a series of PMI releases and UK retail sales data. Technically, a break below 1.3070 would open the way for a test of support from 1.3015 to 1.3030.

Non-agricultural unemployment surges and unemployment hits new highs! The Feds hawks attack, and the yen 160 red line is in danger(图3)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Friday, gold hovered around 4076.67. With strong U.S. employment data denting expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, precious metals may have limited upside. Traders are bracing for preliminary readings from the U.S. S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and Michigan Consumer Confidence reports, due later on Friday.

Non-agricultural unemployment surges and unemployment hits new highs! The Feds hawks attack, and the yen 160 red line is in danger(图4)

Technical: Gold's upward trend remains intact despite the hawkish stance of Fed officials. However, price action suggests that once gold prices fall below the November 18 low of $3,998/oz, sellers may take over and could further test the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,954/oz. However, the path of least resistance suggests that once gold breaks $4,100 an ounce, buying pressure could push gold toward $4,150 an ounce and then a test of the previous cycle high of $4,245 an ounce, which peaked on November 13.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Friday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 58.49. Oil prices fell in shock on Thursday. Although U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected, providing support, news that the U.S. was promoting Russia-Ukraine peace talks triggered concerns about oversupply, which ultimately suppressed market sentiment. The market is closely watching the effect of U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil on Friday, as well as Ukraine's formal response to the latest peace proposal, which will determine the direction of oil prices in the short term.

Non-agricultural unemployment surges and unemployment hits new highs! The Feds hawks attack, and the yen 160 red line is in danger(图5)

Technical: WTI crude oil futures prices remain volatile, mainly benefiting from its attempt to repair the obvious oversold condition on the relative strength indicator. Especially in the short term, there have been positive overlapping signals to support the price trend. These signals have brought support to the price. This intraday rebound shows that the price is in a brief respite stage after the last wave of decline.

2025 1 Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on January 21

15:00 UK public sector xm-bx.com borrowing in October

15:00 UK retail sales monthly rate after seasonally adjustment in October

16:15 French manufacturing PMI initial value in November

16:30 German manufacturing PMI initial value in November

16:30 European Central Bank President Laga Germany gave a speech

17:00 Euro zone November manufacturing PMI initial value

17:30 UK manufacturing and services PMI initial value

20:30 Fed Williams gave a speech

20:40 Swiss National Bank President Schlegel gave a speech

21:30 Canada September retail sales monthly rate

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21:30 Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr delivers a speech

21:45 Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivers a speech

22:00 Fed Logan participates in a group meeting

22:45 US November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI initial value

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